{"id":2204,"date":"2023-05-26T18:41:29","date_gmt":"2023-05-26T16:41:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/urbag.eu\/?p=2204"},"modified":"2023-05-26T18:41:29","modified_gmt":"2023-05-26T16:41:29","slug":"new-publication-in-climate-dynamics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/2023\/05\/26\/new-publication-in-climate-dynamics\/","title":{"rendered":"New publication in “Climate Dynamics”"},"content":{"rendered":"

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See full article\/ Veure l’article complet<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

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English:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Heatwaves (HWs) are expected to increase both in duration and intensity in the next decades, but little is known about their synoptic and mesoscalar behavior, which is especially important in mid-latitude regions. Most climate research has focused on temperature analysis to characterize HWs. We propose that a combination of temperature and synoptic patterns is a better way to define and understand HWs because including atmospheric circulation patterns provides information about different HW structures that can irregularly affect the territory, and illustrate this approach at the regional and urban scales using the Iberian Peninsula and the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona as case studies. We first select HW events from 1950 to 2020 and apply a multivariate analysis to identify synoptic patterns based on mean sea level pressure, geopotential height at 500 hPa, and maximum daily 2 m temperature. The results indicate that four synoptic patterns reproduce at least 50% of the variance in HWs, namely, \u201cstationary and stable\u201d, \u201cdynamic and advective\u201d, \u201cstationary and advective\u201d, and \u201cdynamic, advective and undulated\u201d. Next, we apply the analysis to the Representative Concentration Pathway future scenarios (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) to determine how these synoptic trends can change in the future. The analysis shows that the four synoptic patterns continue to explain 55 to 60% of the variance in HWs. Future HW events will be characterized by an increase in geopotential height at 500 hPa due to the northward shift of the anticyclonic ridge. This is especially true for RCP8.5, which simulates business as usual incrementing fossil fuel use and additionally shows an increase in atmospheric dynamism in north advections from all directions in comparison with RCP4.5. These findings point to the importance of considering the geopotential height in HW prediction, as well as the direction of advections.<\/p>\n

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Catal\u00e0:<\/strong><\/p>\n

S’espera que les onades de calor (HW) augmentin tant en durada com en intensitat en les properes d\u00e8cades, per\u00f2 se sap poc sobre el seu comportament sin\u00f2ptic i mesoescalar, que \u00e9s especialment important a les latituds mitjanes. La majoria de les investigacions clim\u00e0tiques s’han centrat en l’an\u00e0lisi de la temperatura per caracteritzar les HW. Nosaltres proposem que una combinaci\u00f3 de la temperatura i els patrons sin\u00f2ptics \u00e9s una millor manera de definir i entendre les HWs,\u00a0 ja que incloure els patrons de circulaci\u00f3 atmosf\u00e8rica proporciona informaci\u00f3 sobre diferents estructures que poden afectar irregularment el territori. Per il\u00b7lustrar aquest enfocament, fem l’estudi a escala regional i urbana utilitzant la pen\u00ednsula Ib\u00e8rica i l’\u00c0rea Metropolitana de Barcelona com a casos d’estudi. Per aix\u00f2, hem seleccionat les HW del per\u00edode compr\u00e8s entre 1950 i 2020, al qual li apliquem una an\u00e0lisi multivariant per identificar patrons sin\u00f2ptics basats en la pressi\u00f3 mitjana a nivell del mar, l’al\u00e7ada geopotencial a 500 hPa i la temperatura m\u00e0xima di\u00e0ria a 2 m. Els resultats indiquen que quatre patrons sin\u00f2ptics reprodueixen almenys el 50% de la vari\u00e0ncia de les HW: “estacionari i estable”, “din\u00e0mic i advectiu”, “estacionari i advectiu” i “din\u00e0mic, advectiu i ondulat”. A continuaci\u00f3, s’ha aplicat l’an\u00e0lisi als escenaris futurs “Representative Concentration Pathway” (RCP) 4.5 i 8.5 de “Coordinate Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment” (CORDEX) per determinar com poden canviar aquestes tend\u00e8ncies sin\u00f2ptiques en el futur. L’an\u00e0lisi mostra que els quatre patrons sin\u00f2ptics continuen explicant entre el 55 i el 60% de la vari\u00e0ncia de les HWs. Els futurs esdeveniments de HW es caracteritzaran per un augment de l’al\u00e7ada geopotencial a 500 hPa a causa del despla\u00e7ament cap al nord de la dorsal anticicl\u00f2nica. Aix\u00f2 \u00e9s especialment cert per al RCP8.5, que simula un escenari on se segueix augmentant l’\u00fas de combustibles f\u00f2ssils. A m\u00e9s, aquest escenari mostra un augment del dinamisme atmosf\u00e8ric, com per exemple les adveccions del nord des de totes les direccions, en comparaci\u00f3 amb el RCP4.5. Aquestes troballes apunten a la import\u00e0ncia de considerar l’al\u00e7ada geopotencial en la predicci\u00f3 de HWs, aix\u00ed com la direcci\u00f3 de les adveccions.<\/p>\n

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Graphical workflow\/Resum gr\u00e0fic de l’article<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Title: Analysis of synoptic weather patterns of heatwave events \/<\/p>\n

Heatwaves (HWs) are expected to increase both in duration and intensity in the next decades, but little is known about their synoptic and mesoscalar behavior, which is especially important in mid-latitude regions. We propose that a combination of temperature and synoptic patterns is a better way to define and understand HWs because including atmospheric circulation patterns provides information about different HW structures that can irregularly affect the territory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3153,"featured_media":2212,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[7,229,16,230,231,232,233,226,234,235,10,103],"class_list":["post-2204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-amb","tag-article","tag-barcelona","tag-heatwaves","tag-hw","tag-onada-de-calor","tag-paper","tag-scenarios","tag-synoptic-pattern","tag-synoptic-type","tag-urbag","tag-urban"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2204","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3153"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2204\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}