{"id":2672,"date":"2024-08-15T11:36:57","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T09:36:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/urbag.eu\/?p=2672"},"modified":"2024-08-15T11:36:57","modified_gmt":"2024-08-15T09:36:57","slug":"new-preprint-determining-the-intensity-of-future-heatwave-episodes-at-urban-scales-a-case-study-of-the-metropolitan-area-of-barcelona","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/2024\/08\/15\/new-preprint-determining-the-intensity-of-future-heatwave-episodes-at-urban-scales-a-case-study-of-the-metropolitan-area-of-barcelona\/","title":{"rendered":"New preprint: “Determining the Intensity of Future Heatwave Episodes at Urban Scales: A Case Study of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona”"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

A new paper led by Sergi Ventura<\/strong><\/a> has been submitted to the journal Urban Climate and has now been announced as a preprint in the Social Science Research Network (SSRN).<\/p>\n

See full article\/ Veure l’article complet<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

English:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Given that more than half of the world\u2019s population currently resides in cities, further understanding of the potential impact of future climate change on urban areas is needed. We thus simulate future heatwave (HW) episodes in the metropolitan area of Barcelona (AMB) using the pseudo global warming dynamic downscaling method. We first simulate the HWs that occurred in the AMB during 1991-2020 using the high-resolution Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Building Effect Parameterization and Building Energy Model (BEP+BEM). Then, these historical HW events are simulated under mid-century (2041-2070) and end-of-the-century (2071-2100) conditions according to the CMIP6 radiative-forcing-scenario SSP370, with CO2 emissions are projected to double from current levels by 2100. HW intensity is expected to increase by 2.5\u00b0C and 4.2\u00b0C in the mid- and end-of-the-century periods, respectively. Higher temperatures happen during periods of stationary and stable synoptic patterns, which are also projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Increments of geopotential height by end of the century indicate changes in thermodynamic and dynamic effects resulting in potentially warmer HW episodes. Determining potential changes in future HW trends can aid in formulating heat mitigation and adaptation strategies, particularly for the most vulnerable areas further from the coast.<\/p>\n

\n

Catal\u00e0:<\/strong><\/p>\n

At\u00e8s que m\u00e9s de la meitat de la poblaci\u00f3 mundial actualment resideix a les ciutats, \u00e9s necessari comprendre millor l’impacte potencial del canvi clim\u00e0tic futur en les \u00e0rees urbanes. Per aix\u00f2, simulem futurs episodis d’onada de calor (HW) a l’\u00e0rea metropolitana de Barcelona (AMB) utilitzant el m\u00e8tode de downscaling din\u00e0mic pseudoescalfament global. Primer simulem les onades de calor que van oc\u00f3rrer a l’AMB durant el per\u00edode 1991-2020 utilitzant el model de predicci\u00f3 meteorol\u00f2gica d’alta resoluci\u00f3 Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) combinat amb la Parametritzaci\u00f3 de l’Efecte dels Edificis i el Model d’Energia d’Edificis (BEP+BEM). A continuaci\u00f3, aquests esdeveniments hist\u00f2rics d’onada de calor es simulen sota les condicions de mitjans de segle (2041-2070) i de finals de segle (2071-2100) segons l’escenari de for\u00e7ament radiatiu SSP370 del CMIP6, amb emissions de CO2 que es preveu que es duplicaran respecte als nivells actuals per a l’any 2100. Es preveu que la intensitat de les onades de calor augmenti en 2,5 \u00b0C i 4,2 \u00b0C a mitjans i finals de segle, respectivament. Les temperatures m\u00e9s altes es produeixen durant per\u00edodes de patrons sin\u00f2ptics estacionaris i estables, que tamb\u00e9 es preveu que augmentin en freq\u00fc\u00e8ncia i intensitat. Els increments de l’altura geopotencial a finals de segle indiquen canvis en els efectes termodin\u00e0mics i din\u00e0mics, que poden resultar en episodis d’onada de calor potencialment m\u00e9s c\u00e0lids. Determinar els possibles canvis en les tend\u00e8ncies futures de les onades de calor pot ajudar a formular estrat\u00e8gies de mitigaci\u00f3 i adaptaci\u00f3 a la calor, especialment per a les \u00e0rees m\u00e9s vulnerables allunyades de la costa.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Graphical abstract<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Title: Determining the Intensity of Future Heatwave Episodes at Urban Scales: A Case Study of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona \/
\nGiven that more than half of the world\u2019s population currently resides in cities, further understanding of the potential impact of future climate change on urban areas is needed. We thus simulate future heatwave (HW) episodes in the metropolitan area of Barcelona (AMB) using the pseudo global warming dynamic downscaling method.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3153,"featured_media":2592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[325,7,16,326,327,328,60,322,314,307],"class_list":["post-2672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-1km","tag-amb","tag-barcelona","tag-clima-futur","tag-downscaling","tag-future-climate","tag-heatwave","tag-onades-de-calor","tag-pseudo-global-warming","tag-temperature-regulation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2672","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3153"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2672"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2672\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2672"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2672"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webs.uab.cat\/atmosphere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2672"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}