Workpackage 3 of the ATRAPA project has achieved significant progress, using Barcelona as a pilot case to examine how sustainable urban transformations affect political support for implementing parties. Two recent papers published by our team in Cities and in Environment International have analyzed this electoral dimension at the local level, employing a range of methods that include linear regression models, Difference-in-Differences (DiD), and Propensity Score Matching (PSM). This comprehensive methodological approach leverages highly detailed electoral data at the census area level from the municipal elections held in 2015, 2019, and 2023.
Contrary to widespread concerns of electoral backlash against politicians supporting urban sustainability measures, our combined results consistently reveal a very different picture. Progressive politicians in Barcelona, notably associated with the Superblocks and green axis initiatives, did not experience a negative electoral impact. On the contrary, results show a clear and significant electoral benefit, quantified between 1.5 and 3 percentage points above expected electoral outcomes. While our methods only allow us to test political impact in the areas that have received these interventions, and thus we cannot know how voters have responded elsewhere in the city, these results are positive for progressive public officials worried by a potential backlash. The documented benefits appeared to be consistent and robust regardless of the methodology applied, clearly indicating that sustainable urban interventions like Superblocks not only avoided voter backlash but positively resonated with the electorate at the local level.
Importantly, as a team we are not limiting our focus to Superblocks alone. Currently, efforts are underway to extend this rigorous methodological approach to examine other types of sustainable urban interventions, such as the expansion of bike lane networks and the creation of protected school environments. By broadening the scope of these analyses, the project aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the political dynamics surrounding various forms of urban transformation.
These insights are valuable for policymakers and urban planners, who often fear electoral repercussions when implementing transformative sustainability measures. The findings reassure decision-makers that electorates can indeed recognize and reward the positive impacts of urban interventions designed to foster healthier, more sustainable urban environments.
References:
Marquet, O., Fernández-Núñez, M.-B., & Maciejewska, M. (2024). The political price of superblocks. Electoral outcomes of sustainable transport interventions in Barcelona. Environment International, 108789. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108789
Fernández Núñez, M.-B., Oñate, J. O., Triguero-Mas, M., & Marquet, O. (2025). Electoral consequences of Urban interventions: The case of superblocks, school streets, and bike lanes in Barcelona. Cities, 165, 106130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.106130