“OPINION DYNAMICS, COLLECTIVE ACTION AND ABRUPT SOCIAL CHANGES:
THE ROLE OF PREFERENCE FALSIFICATION AND SOCIAL NETWORKS” (DOACSA)
Work plan
1. Design a mechanism-based simulation model to study how preference falsification dynamics affect opinion dynamics
1.1. ABM model programming
a. Bibliographical review and recent contributions in the field of the project
b. Construction of the model
1.2. Model calibration and verification
c. Design and implement laboratory and online experiments to empirically calibrate the main parameters and assumptions of the model
d. Selection of real data series to validate the model.
2. Study of the model’s capacity to produce abrupt changes
2.1 Design of shocks
a. Identification and programming of that could abruptly alter the model equilibria
2.2 Robustness analysis
b. Sensitivity analysis. Exploration of the parameter space under the new conditions; especially parameters related to the characteristics of social networks (i.e., distribution of degree, density, and length).
c. Execution of the model simulation and analysis of outcomes
3. Study of the role of the interaction between social norms, rationality, and preference falsification in real processes of collective action that can lead to abrupt social change
3.1. Retrospective analysis
a. Selection of historical case studies. Bibliographical review and study of documentation
b. Study of the model adequacy
3.2. Prospective analysis
c. Selection of current cases
d. Quantitative and qualitative fieldwork
e. Analysis of results
